What will happen to the Indian IT industry in the 2020s?

it-industry

We will be talking about following aspects:

  • IT industry growth rate and current strength
  • Change of Technology onshore-offshore model
  • internet/startup bubble, Big Data, MicroServices and others.
  • Future of IT Engineer

IT Industry growth rate –

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 IT industry is having very healthy growth rate in terms of revenue about 20-30%; currently having 10 million (1 crore) IT professionals (including BPO/KPO etc).

So in 10 years it is expected to only double (2 crore IT jobs) instead of 4 crore jobs.

Why?

  • Automation will take up more jobs, Automation is only possible in testing, in our lifetime we will not see machine becoming intelligent to write code automatically.
  • Make in India will surely create more jobs in India for IT professionals.
  • Most of the projects are already created; only developing countries need to automate system. There will be no survival without involving IT.
  • Products are taking up more jobs as now chatbots, customizable product;these are easy to deploy/upgrade and cheaper to maintain. However, product lack flexibility to some extent and internal representation is not exposed.
  • IT will create more jobs for other sectors: Banking, manufacturing, finance, sales. Jobs in all these sector will increase exponentially.

Change of Technology

In every 2 years, we have whole new set of technologies. IT engineer has to learn what is in the market to survive. However, there are two sets of technologies – one which matures with time (Java,TIBCO, SalesForce, Oracle) and another which has hype and may or may not exist in future (react,node, prototype,NoSQL etc). I have worked on dozens of technologies, which are no more.

Onsite-Offshore model will change and there will be more thing driven from offshore (core). Onsite, will reduce (if exist).

It means that if you start job at 2.5 LPA (Lakhs Per Annum) in 2006 then on average after 10 years experience your package will be just near 7 LPA that means 42K in hand.

Future Vision:

Fresher and 0–5 years experience – will be paid extremely less as always

5–10 years experienced: Will make good money to survive but nothing to save.

Seniors 10+ – They will be architects/individual contributor or delivery managers and they will enjoy handsome pay packages.

Geeks and Expert 15+ – It will be new category, they will decide pay package for themselves, so if you are 10+ and you are mad about technology. You will be the one, who will get package beyond thoughts and imagination. From India prospective, they can expect package similar to US citizen. However, it will be possible if you survive pyramid problem. (see section 3).

3. Internet/startup bubble – Internet consumption will go 10 times from what it is now. There will be new huge user base.

But there is again pyramid problem

currently distribution is :

so lets say we have 20 lakh jobs for 10+ experience

in 10 years down the line 45% will grow and it.

will fight for approx 40 lakh job and it will be divided in 20 lakh(10+), 20 lakh(20+).

Lets say 45 lakh resources, 2 lakh resources will leave IT. So 23 lakh resources surplus! So they have to bear in 5–10 years experience slot and hence they will paid less or will strive for survival.

So danger zone will be 5 – 15 years experience resources! This will make IT most unstable job market to join after 5 years.

People like me, will have 20+ years experience and will get the cream as we have seen base frameworks, architectures, which may not be exposed to future IT engineer.

BigData, Cloud, Microservices etc and new technologies will create jobs but it can’t exceed above mentioned numbers.

Future of IT Engineer:

Though India is fastest growing country towards spirituality, IT will remain most stressful job with least ROI. IT people have to study throughout their life and it is unnecessary burden. Continuous use of mind will make it tough; packages of non- IT jobs are expected to grow, so again IT demand will decrease. If your child is doing 12th then IT stream may not be best, unless he/she is diehard fan of computer programming. In future, any job will give money equivalent to IT engineer with that experience.

IT pay packages seen just 10–20% growth in a decade; while inflation crossed 120%. We can expect same in next decade also.

EDIT 1: Don’t think that IT is going to end or you need to be in fix set of technologies, then only you can survive. Yes, currently, IT is facing slow down but things will change, there are millions of systems which are waiting to be automated. Revolution in Mobile technology, analysis of terabytes of data and Artificial Intelligence in almost everything will lead to IT growth.

Further, any war or crisis situation will accelerate such growth. Due to low return and extreme work pressure – people already started choosing better living over tough life; competition will automatically ease out.

Spirituality is must for IT task-force. Companies always love coolest, happiest, peaceful resources and you are not gonna get it without diving deeper into spirituality and connection with the self.

I have a strong belief that IT will be integral part of many streams and it will lead to multi-specialist requirement in future. So IT will not be isolated field, it will be integral part of all development.

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